ElectroniCast high-brightness LEDs global market forecast & analysis

Jan 25th, 2011
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Date Announced: 25 Jan 2011

Upper Lake, CA (USA) - ElectroniCast Consultants, a leading market research consultancy, today announced the release of a just-completed market review and forecast of the global consumption of packaged High Brightness Light Emitting Diodes (HB-LEDs).

The review of 2010 plus the market forecast (2011-2020) is presented for High Brightness LEDs with a lumens/Watt rating of 30 to 70 lm/W, as well as HB-LEDs with a lumens/Watt rating of over 70 lm/W. For the January 2011 report, new application categories have been added to the forecast, as well as extensive market and technology analysis.

According to ElectroniCast Consultants, the global consumption of packaged HB-LEDs in 2010 was $10.09 billion. In the year 2020, the worldwide consumption value is forecast to reach $46.05 billion (see Figure). Market forecast data in this study report refers to consumption (use) for a particular calendar year; therefore, this data is not cumulative data.

“During the 2010-2020 timeframe covered in the ElectroniCast study report, decreasing average selling prices (ASPs) are forecast to cause challenging growth patterns in consumption value in some application segments; therefore competitors need to choose the right “windows of opportunity” to climb through,” said Stephen Montgomery, Director of LED market research at ElectroniCast.

According to the study results, use of HB-LEDs in Mobile/Portable Devices is forecast to remain a strong segment; however, OLEDs continue to take market share. The sector is relatively mature versus other sectors and it already has a substantial consumption value; however, there are some emerging “stars” in the portable device category with a very impressive growth pattern forecast for WLEDS (white HB-LEDS).

In terms of consumption value (quantity x prices = value), the use of HB-LEDs in the Vehicle category is forecast to multiply by a factor of 7-times (7x), before eventually slipping in value, since declining average prices will offset rising quantity growth in some LED color segments.

The use of HB-LEDs in stationary (non-vehicle) Signals is forecast to increase at an average growth rate of 25.8 percent (2010-2015) and the use of HB-LEDs in SSL-General Lighting products is forecast for explosive throughout the 2010-2020 timeline covered in the ElectroniCast study.

The use of HB-LEDs in the Signage/Professional Display application is forecast to increase at an impressive growth pattern eventually consuming over $6 billion in 2020, according to the forecast by ElectroniCast Consultants.

Consumption of HB-LEDs in “Other” or miscellaneous applications will become much more segmented with opportunities and accountable, partially attributed to the fact that the tracking of the product use will be (more) evident, aided by automated inventory and purchasing management at the retail and other supply levels.

In the backlighting of consumer-level TV/Desktop Monitor category, the number of packaged white light emitting diodes that are require per back lighting unit (BLU) will decline, due to increased luminous efficacy and improvements (innovations) in supporting optics (waveguides, components and packaging).

Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and product planners, ElectroniCast can see ideas and then (eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products) are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set anticipated usage (consumption) into the market forecast.

“Therefore, as we are looking as far as 10-years, many of the future products for the 2020 marketplace are not even at the idea-stage yet. It is also important to note that we, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity HB-LEDs,” Montgomery added.

This 769-page market forecast report, along with an extensive database (Excel spreadsheets) is available immediately from ElectroniCast Consultants. For detailed information on this or other services provided by ElectroniCast, please contact Theresa Hosking, Marketing/Sales; thosking@electronicastconsultants.com

(Telephone/USA: 707/275-9397)

ElectroniCast Consultants specializes in forecasting trends in technology forecasting, markets and applications forecasting, strategic planning and consulting. ElectroniCast Consultants, as a technology-based independent forecasting firm, serves industrial companies, trade associations, government agencies, communication and data network companies and the financial community. Reduction of the risk of major investment decisions is the main benefit provided. ElectroniCast Consultants’ goal is to understand the challenges and opportunities facing clients and to provide timely, accurate information for strategic planning.

Contact
Theresa Hosking VP Sales and Marketing ElectroniCast Consultants 9959 Old Orchard Lane Upper Lake, CA 95485 831-234-5898

E-mail:thosking@electronicastconsultants.com

Web Site:www.electronicast.com

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