| At Strategies in Light, the annual LEDs conference organized by Strategies Unlimited, market analyst Bob Steele presented his most recent market numbers. Steele's estimate for the total market for packaged high-brightness LEDs in 2004 was $3.7 bn, an increase of 37% over the previous year.
InGaN-based devices, comprising blue, green and white LEDs, were the dominant material. Steele's estimate does not include AlGaAs devices, or LEDs manufactured and sold within China. A surprising fact was that white LEDs accounted for exactly half of the total 2004 market.
With a 58% share, the mobile appliance segment dominated the high-brightness LED (HBLED) market once again. Price erosion in this segment had a constraining effect on overall market growth, which was also affected by the weakness of the dollar against other relevant currencies.
Looking ahead, Steele said that growth will slow significantly as the mobile appliance market saturates. Even so, the market is set to move smoothly past the $4 bn mark in 2005, and growth is expected to accelerate in 2007-9 as new applications such as automotive headlights and large-area LCD backlights start to kick in. The current forecast shows the market exceeding $5 bn in 2007 and topping $7 bn in 2009.
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